Today, I preview the current betting odds leading up to WWE Evolution which will air live on the WWE Network on Sunday, October 28th.
A quick warning before we get into the odds for WWE Evolution: Betting odds for WWE represent possible spoilers. While it is not a certainty, they are right more often than not. So if you don’t want to be spoiled, stop reading now!
How To Read American Betting Odds
For my articles on Daily DDT, I will use an American betting odds system. Here is a quick overview (and fractional odds conversion) for how American betting odds look:
A “favorite” is given a negative number. This is the amount of money that needs to be placed on that competitor to win $100. For example, if someone is a -300 favorite, you need to bet $300 to potentially win $100. If you win the bet, you get $400 back (your original $300 and your $100 profit). If you lose the bet, you lose your $300.
-300 = 1/3 in fractional odds.
An “underdog” is given a positive number. This is the amount of money you will WIN so long as you bet $100. For example, if someone is a +450 underdog, you need to bet $100 to potentially win $450. If you win the bet, you get $550 back (your original $100 and your $450 profit). If you lose the bet, you lose your $100.
+450 = 9/2 in fractional odds.
Understanding Implied Odds
One way to quickly translate betting odds is to understand how they convert to implied odds. I’ve included a list of popular betting lines below alongside their implied odds.
WWE Evolution: Betting Odds
Odds as of 10/24/2018 at 11:30 AM at Oddshark.
Ronda Rousey (-900) vs. Nikki Bella (+500)
Becky Lynch (-185) vs. Charlotte Flair (+145)
Trish Stratus and Lita (-390) vs. Alexa Bliss and Mickie James (+270)
Io Shirai (-120) vs. Toni Storm (Even)
The Riott Squad (-175) vs. Bayley, Sasha Banks, and Natalya (+125)
WWE Women’s Battle Royal*
Ember Moon Wins: +300
Asuka Wins: +300
Nia Jax Wins: +475
Naomi Wins: +475
Carmella Wins: +700
* Since there are so many participants in the battle royal, it is not uncommon for everyone to be listed as an “underdog” and given positive odds. At +300, Ember Moon and Asuka are the “favorites”.
Kevin’s Thoughts: First, I could not find a line for Kairi Sane (c) vs. Shayna Baszler or Rhea Ripley (c) vs. Isla Dawn anywhere. This is likely due to NXT not typically being on the receiving end of betting lines. I will be on the lookout over the next few days and provide an update in my next article if they are ever published.
In terms of the lines we do have, I am not in love with many of these lines. Given that Lita and Trish are due to appear at events after WWE Evolution, their victory seems imminent. There is also speculation that Alexa Bliss could miss Evolution and be replaced with Alicia Fox. If that is announced, I’d imagine the odds would skyrocket even further.
Becky Lynch and Charlotte Flair have been the odds to watch. The lines opened at -185 for Becky Lynch and +145 for Charlotte Flair. Over the last few days, a stream of money came in on Charlotte as she came all the way up to +110 to Lynchs’ -120. However, seemingly overnight the odds have skewed back towards Becky at -185.
Battle Royal’s are always a shot in the dark with so many participants in them. Given that the winner will ultimately earn a title opportunity, I think you’d have to consider who makes the most sense to challenge Ronda Rousey, Becky Lynch, or Charlotte Flair next.
I don’t consider Nikki Bella a threat to the title at this stage. I don’t see WWE going the Ember Moon v. Ronda Rousey direction nor do I see them going back to Nia Jax.
That makes me think the challenger will come from Smackdown. Assuming Lynch keeps the title, Asuka or Naomi both make a lot of sense to potentially challenge her. If you think about it, Asuka won the first ever women’s Royal Rumble and Naomi won the Battle Royal at WrestleMania 34 this year. It would not stun me to see these two women as the last ones standing.
Kevin’s Best Bet(s)
First, a recap from WWE Super Showdown.
Bet 1: AJ Styles def. Samoa Joe ($140 to win $100) – WIN
Bet 2: Parlay*, Buddy Murphy def. Cedric Alexander and The IIconics def. Asuka and Naomi ($100 to win $123) – WIN
Bet 3: Charlotte Flair def. Becky Lynch ($100 to win $185) – WIN
Kevin’s Bank: 3-0, +408.00
Results: The favorites went an impressive 9-1 at Super Showdown. I was able to spike the 1 underdog to win, Charlotte Flair, at +185. The DQ victory is always something to consider when you see someone earmarked as a favorite. The Australian connection of Buddy Murphy and The IIconics did not suffer a defeat in their hometown and AJ Styles dispatched of Samoa Joe.
One important thing to note is that in my article (published on 10/2) The Undertaker was listed as a -155 favorite. However, hours before the start of Super Showdown (10/6) those odds had flipped. Triple H entered as a -155 favorite and thus is credited as a win for the favorites.
Next, my best bets for WWE Evolution:
Bet 1: Becky Lynch def. Charlotte Flair ($185 to win $100)
Bet 2: Trish/Lita def. Bliss/James ($390 to win $100)
Bet 3: Asuka wins Women’s Battle Royal ($50 to win $150.00)
WWE Super Showdown (Betting Favorites 9-1, Kevin’s Best Bets 3-0)
Disclaimer: Betting, in any form, involves risk. The author of this article is not responsible for decisions made based on the opinions of this article.